The ALBATROSS partner University of Liege has led a study which investigated how climate stressors influence migration patterns and urbanization trends across five key sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries—Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, Madagascar, and South Africa—offering critical insights for policymakers, researchers, and urban planners.

SSA is at the heart of some of the most significant transformations of the 21st century. Climate change, migration, and rapid urbanization are reshaping the region’s socio-economic and environmental landscapes. The report resulting of this study, referenced as D2.3 – Climate, Migration, and Urbanization Patterns in SSA, developed under the ALBATROSS project, provides a comprehensive analysis of these interconnections.

This report employs a qualitative expert-informed synthesis approach, combining an extensive literature review with insights from expert interviews. The study integrates peer-reviewed research, policy documents, and gray literature to ensure a comprehensive understanding of climate-migration-urbanization linkages. Additionally, expert interviews conducted with researchers and policymakers across SSA help contextualize the findings, providing real-world perspectives on migration trends and urban resilience challenges. This mixed-method approach ensures that the report is both empirically grounded and policy-relevant.

Key Takeways: Climate as a “Threat Multiplier”

Climate change does not act in isolation but rather amplifies existing vulnerabilities. Extreme temperatures, prolonged droughts, coastal erosion, cyclones, and floods interact with economic disparities, governance structures, and socio-political factors, shaping migration patterns across the region. While many individuals move to cities in search of better opportunities, others remain trapped in climate-vulnerable areas due to various reasons, including financial and structural constraints.

The report identifies eight overarching insights to be kept in mind when working on this nexus:

  1. Beyond Climate Change – Climate pressures intensify existing socio-economic inequalities, but aspirations, governance, and livelihoods also influence migration decisions.
  2. Non-Linear Migration Responses – Mobility is not a direct response to climate shocks; a similar event might lead to different migration outcomes in different contexts.
  3. The Role of Immobility – Not everyone can or wants to migrate; “trapped” populations remain highly vulnerable to climate stressors.
  4. Complex Urbanization Trends – Migration alone does not explain urban expansion; factors such as economic development and infrastructure availability also shape urban growth.
  5. Translocal Connections – Migration deeply links rural and urban economies through remittances, social networks, and shared adaptation strategies, blurring the distinction between urban and rural contexts.
  6. Cities as Adaptation Hubs – Urban centers offer opportunities for resilience but require robust planning to prevent informal settlements from increasing vulnerability.
  7. Migration as a Sustainability Force – If properly managed, research shows that migration can drive economic growth and sustainable development.
  8. Embracing Mobility as Adaptation – Migration should not be seen solely as an adaptation failure, as is still too often the case in political contexts; rather, it can be a proactive response to environmental and economic challenges/opportunities.

Country-Specific Insights

Each country examined in the report presents a unique interaction between climate change, migration, and urbanization:

  • Ghana: Northern regions face intensified drought, driving migration to southern cities such as Accra and Kumasi, where rapid urbanization challenges infrastructure capacity.
  • Kenya: Droughts in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) push rural populations to Nairobi and Mombasa, exacerbating informal settlements.
  • Tanzania: Dar es Salaam experiences high urbanization rates due to economic and environmental pressures, highlighting the need for climate-resilient city planning.
  • Madagascar: Cyclones and coastal erosion threaten livelihoods, driving displacement towards urban centers like Antananarivo and Tamatave.
  • South Africa: Post-apartheid urban migration, combined with climate stressors, shapes Johannesburg and Cape Town’s urban landscapes, reinforcing socio-economic disparities.

Policy Recommendations

The report outlines several strategic actions to enhance resilience and governance:

  • Integrating Climate Mobility into National Adaptation Plans – Climate-driven migration must be embedded in urban and national policies to support both migrants and host communities.
  • Strengthening Urban Governance – Cities must invest in flood defenses, resilient housing, and green infrastructure to accommodate growing urban populations.
  • Enhancing Data Collection and Research – More comprehensive climate-migration data is needed to inform policy decisions.
  • Investing in Rural Livelihoods – Supporting climate-smart agriculture and education initiatives can reduce forced migration and increase community resilience.
  • Facilitating Safe and Orderly Migration – Legal pathways and social protection mechanisms can ensure migrants benefit from urban economic opportunities.

Conclusion: A Call for Action

As SSA continues to urbanize and experience climate variability, this report highlights the urgency of integrating climate resilience into migration governance. Instead of viewing migration solely as a challenge, it can be harnessed as a driver of sustainable development. By prioritizing inclusive urban planning, strengthening institutional capacity, and investing in adaptive policies, sub-Saharan African nations can better navigate the evolving climate-migration-urbanization nexus.